Lordy

Lordy, I hope... well, a lot of things...

Monday, August 15, 2016

What Booman Said

For at least a year, I've agreed with pretty much everything Booman has written regarding projections for the Presidential election. Even before Trump, no matter who the nominee was, the Republicans never had a chance of beating Hillary

I hear people say that Clinton would be losing to any reasonable Republican, but this is complete horseshit. She'd be beating Jeb Bush just as badly, if not worse.
 
The last two elections were not close at all if you look at it from an Electoral College perspective, and this election will not be close for the simple reason that nothing has changed that would put a bunch of asses in the right column. If anything, there is a huge group of people out there who only voted against President Obama because he had a characteristic that Clinton doesn't share. Clinton loses nothing by being white even while she gains from it.
 
The only thing Trump got right is that he understood that you can't beat Obama's coalition with McCain or Romney's or even Dubya's coalitions. You have to reshape the electorate.
 
But he's reshaping it in ways that make things far worse and he's destroying the cohesiveness of his party in the process.
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I have not worried for a second about the Republicans taking back the White House in 2016 since about 2013. Their entire field was talentless, the demographic trends are not in their favor, and they've been moving towards a political philosophy that represents nobody but the extreme base they began courting with Goldwater in 1964. They probably will turn things around, at least a bit, at some point, but I don't yet see how or when.

As I've been saying all to my skeered liberal friends and colleagues for over a year now, "It's not a question of whether Hillary will win; it's a matter of how much and whether the Democrats get back the Senate and House."

As of now, I'm figuring the Senate is in the bag with a maximum of 58 seats, probably 54 being realistic; the House is still a longshot but looking better every day.

Stay confident, but stay involved.

Friday, August 12, 2016

Going Full Godwin



Trump came out today (around the 1:05 mark in this video) to Flight of the Valkyries. You can't make this stuff up... and apparently he's done this before.